KRALENDIJK – The rapidly intensifying El Niño could have a major impact on the weather in the Caribbean and on Bonaire in the coming months. Caribbean Weather Center expects less rainfall, more dry and sunny days, and higher temperatures. The risk of prolonged drought on the ABC islands is also increasing.
El Niño developed earlier this year over the tropical Pacific Ocean and has been rapidly intensifying ever since. According to Caribbean Weather Center, sea surface temperatures in parts of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean are now well above the long-term average. The weather service even puts the probability at around 70 percent that the phenomenon will develop into a so-called Super El Niño, potentially reaching the strongest category.
NOAA also expects El Niño to continue gaining strength. The US weather agency forecasts a high probability of a strong to very strong El Niño during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season.
Lower chance of tropical systems
For the Caribbean, El Niño typically has a suppressing effect on the development of tropical storms and hurricanes. The climate phenomenon increases wind shear above parts of the Atlantic Ocean and especially the Caribbean. Winds at different altitudes blow at different speeds or from different directions, making it harder for tropical systems to organize.
Caribbean Weather Center also expects a more stable atmosphere and higher air pressure over parts of the Atlantic region, creating less favorable conditions for the formation and further development of tropical cyclones.
NOAA likewise expects El Niño to suppress hurricane activity this season. Strong El Niño years have historically been associated with below-average activity over the Atlantic Ocean.
More wind and possibly more Saharan dust
For Bonaire, the effects on precipitation and temperature are particularly significant. Higher air pressure may strengthen the trade winds. Tropical waves consequently move through the region more quickly and have less time to develop.
The more stable and drier air may also be favorable for the presence and spread of Saharan dust over the Caribbean. At the same time, rain systems will have greater difficulty developing.
The result could be that Bonaire, Curaçao, and Aruba receive less rainfall than usual in the coming months. Caribbean Weather Center warns particularly for the southern half of the Caribbean, where the risk of drought is considered greatest.
Drought possibly extending into 2027
For the ABC islands, the influence of El Niño may last longer than just the current hurricane season. Caribbean Weather Center anticipates drought for the remainder of this year and possibly into the first part of 2027.
The combination of less cloud cover, less rain, and more sunshine may also cause temperatures to exceed the average more frequently.
This does not mean that rain showers or tropical systems are entirely ruled out. El Niño primarily reduces the likelihood of favorable conditions for prolonged rainfall and the development of tropical cyclones. Even during a strong El Niño, individual disturbances can still reach the Caribbean and the ABC islands.
Source: Caribbean Weather Center
